a fool and his money

b4b has a weekly feature "wickory wednesday" which doesn't always lend itself to rebuttal--it's mostly a plea to get people to contribute to the bush campaign. but to get people to contribute, Polipundit writes the following introduction:

Every economic indicator is pointing up. Jobs are being created by the hundreds of thousands every month. GDP is growing at the fastest rate in 20 years. Inflation is at historic lows.

You can thank President Bush and the GOP-controlled Congress for this. If they hadn't passed the Bush tax cuts, who knows how badly our economy would be doing?

But if Democrats have their way, most of the Bush tax cuts would be repealed or phased out. John Kerry has voted for 350 tax increases and there's no reason to think he'd change his ways if he were actually elected to the presidency. He'll raise your taxes and kill the Bush boom.

let's review these claims:

(1) Every economic indicator is pointing up.

the most recent available index of leading economic indicators is the one for april 2004 (the may index won't be calculated until later this month). the may 2004 index increased by 0.1%. that is an increase (albeit a rather small one). but remember, the index is a composite of 10 different leading economic indicators, essentially an average. as the article notes:

Four of the 10 indicators that the New York-based Conference Board uses to derive the index contributed to the rise. Six were a drag on the index.

...

A decrease in weekly manufacturing hours, manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods, vendor performance, consumer expectations, and orders for non-defense capital goods restrained the rise. Unemployment insurance claims also held back the rise in the total index.

thus, while when averaged together the 10 leading economic indicators are slightly positive, it's wrong to say that all are pointing up. in fact, 6 out of 10 are pointing down.


(2) Jobs are being created by the hundreds of thousands every month.

that's true. in april 2004, for example, nonfarm payroll increased by 288,000. remember, however that it takes jobs to be created at a rate of 137,000 per month just to keep up with population growth. furthermore, job creation was actually better before the bush tax cuts occurred. in march 2000, for example, during a period that the bush administration now claims we were in a recession, nonfarm payroll increased by 416,000. in that light, these job creation jobs are simply fair. not great, just "okay." not much to crow about after all.

(3) GDP is growing at the fastest rate in 20 years.

this claim is simply false. in the first quarter of 2004, g.d.p. grow at a rate of 4.4%. that's pretty good, but not the fastest in 20 years. in the first quarter of 1998, for example, g.d.p. grew at a rate of 5.5%.

(4) Inflation is at historic lows

this is a hard one, because it's so vague. what do they mean by a historic low? the current inflation rate is 2.29%. in 1997 and 1998, for example, it was lower (it also gets a little complicated because there are multiple ways to measure inflation). needless to say, the low inflation is not expected to last if oil prices remain this high.

(5) John Kerry has voted for 350 tax increases

this one has been thoroughly rebutted, but these guys just can't let go. as has noted in the post below, kerry did not "vote for 350 tax increases." as the washington post reported the 350 figure "includes any vote in which Kerry voted to leave taxes unchanged or supported a smaller tax cut than some favored."

a "smaller tax cut" is not an increase. nor is "leav[ing] taxes unchanged." by that same logic, the bush administration has also been in favor of tax increases. we all are. even if i proposed a $100 trillion cut, you could always say i was for a tax increase because i didn't propose one dollar more. by any normal sense of the words "voted for 350 tax increases" this claim is simply a lie.


on the basis of the above, b4b asks people to donate to bush's campaign. if you buy Polipundit's post, go right ahead.